RESTAURANT BOOKINGS
Full-service restaurants have been on the front lines of impact from state restrictions to control the spread of COVID-19. March restaurant bookings increased to be 52.6% below 2019 bookings.
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WHAT THE DATA IS TELLING US Restaurant bookings increased notably during the first two months of 2021, improving the gap from reservation volumes for the same month in 2019 from -75% in January of 2021 to -56% in May. The primary lever leading to the improvement in 2021 was the loosening of restrictions on restaurant operations, which came after several weeks that restaurants were not authorized to offer in-person dining. Bookings continue to increase in May after the removal of all restrictions on restaurant capacity and closing times. Since then, reservation levels have stagnated and remained around -55% below 2019 levels. March 2022 bookings in Greater MSP were 52.6% lower than 2019, a 1 percentage point increase from February. Employment at food services and drinking places increased for most of the year in 2021. December 2021 employment statistics show 40,635 jobs added at food services and drinking places since December 2020, a 51% increase, however, employment remains 15% below 2019 (pre-COVID) levels, and we know from regional partners such as RealTime Talent and Hospitality Minnesota that restaurants are struggling to hire workers. Though continued recovery for the hospitality and food service sector is expected, the talent shortage as well as ongoing public health concerns due to the spread of the Delta variant have slowed progress in the region and in much of the country overall.
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This metric tracks the percent change in the number of restaurant reservations made per week via the OpenTable platform, in relation to the same week in 2019. Data represents restaurant booking activity in the MSP metro area, is updated weekly, and sourced from OpenTable.
WHY THIS MATTERS TO ECONOMIC RECOVERY:
The food service industry was one of the hardest hit industries and continues to be strained by state restrictions, public health regulations, and by the number of people working from home and doing distance learning. The average monthly employment at food services and drinking places was over 138,000 in 2019, accounting for 6.1% of total regional employment for the 15-county metropolitan area. From March to April 2020 employment plummeted 52.7%, meaning over half of the workforce was furloughed or laid off. The pandemic created significant instability for many restaurants in the MSP region for more than a year, and the percentage of restaurant reservation bookings compared to pre-COVID-19 levels continues to reveal long-term impacts on the industry even as the pandemic winds down.
RACIAL EQUITY AND INCLUSIVE RECOVERY:
Annual employment data by industry shows that the food service industry has a high percentage of BIPOC workers in the MSP region. While BIPOC workers represent 22% of total regional employment, 31% of workers employed in food services and drinking places are BIPOC. With many restaurants forced to close during stay-at-home orders, unemployment spiked considerably for food service workers, resulting in a disproportionate impact on BIPOC workers employed in this industry. Many restaurants may not reopen after the COVID19 impact, meaning many BIPOC workers employed in the industry, particularly those with lower levels of educational attainment, are at risk of dropping out of the labor force. These challenges faced by BIPOC workers amplify long-standing structural racial disparities in the MSP region.
TELLING THE FULL STORY:
OpenTable restaurant booking data only represents reservations made through the OpenTable platform, so it represents only a portion of restaurant bookings in the region. Excluded from representation are restaurants that do not use OpenTable reservation services, particularly fast food and fast-casual restaurants, in addition to small family-owned restaurants. Restaurant booking activity is more volatile than other metrics within the Recovery Hub, as it is updated weekly and is a direct measure of consumer behavior, which has been dictated in part by state mandate.
HOW WE STACK UP:
The impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic on the food services industry have been significant across the country but differ widely across regions. This is due in part to variations in the timing and intensity of state mandates that restricted business operations to control the spread of the virus. To understand the relative intensity of COVID-19 impact and the pace of recovery, we are comparing weekly restaurant reservation activity for the MSP region’s peers, a set of regions selected based on demographic and economic characteristics. The same peer regions are tracked in the Regional Indicators Dashboard, a set of indicators that track MSP’s long-term economic competitiveness.
In March, most experienced an increase in restaurant booking activity compared to the previous month of February, due to the large continued decrease in COVID cases. However, Pittsburgh, Portland, and Seattle saw decreases, with Seattle declining the most (9 percentage points from February). Austin saw the largest increase in bookings, up by 14 percentage points from February. Two regions remain above 2019 booking levels: Austin and Charlotte up 27.7% and 5% respectively. MSP and Portland have the largest decrease in restaurant booking activity overall from 2019 levels amongst the twelve peer regions.
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HOW TO LEARN MORE:
The OpenTable platform is an online restaurant reservation tool and includes a community of nearly 60,000 restaurants. OpenTable has summarized data from restaurants on the platform with daily updates through the state of the restaurant industry page on their website.
Hospitality Minnesota is a trade association representing 2,000 restaurants, hotels, resorts, campgrounds and outfitters in Minnesota. More information about state-level guidance for restaurants and to access resources to support restaurants in the region and state can be found at their website.
Want to share insights from the Regional Recovery Hub in your own presentations and materials? Download the Recovery Toolkit.