JOBLESS CLAIMS
The region experienced an unprecedented increase in the volume of applications for state unemployment insurance claims when abrupt furloughs and layoffs took effect in April 2020, and then the number of claims dropped steadily from June to November. A second, smaller resurgence in continued claims came in December 2020, following the state’s 8-week dial back to control the spread of COVID19 after a large spike in case levels. Continued claims in February decreased from January by 13%, the first decline in UI claims in three months.
|
WHAT THE DATA IS TELLING US CHANGE IN DATA METHODOLOGY: GREATER MSP has recently changed the way we track trends in jobless claims as an indicator of economic recovery. The measure previously reflected monthly continuing unemployment insurance and pandemic unemployment assistance (PUA) claims, and has now been adjusted to only track regular continuing unemployment insurance claims. Continuing claims captures individuals who are experiencing ongoing joblessness and are actively receiving benefits, rather than just the number of claims filed. More, excluding PUA claims helps us to understand the trend in claims filed from pre-COVID levels, as PUA was not offered at that time. This measure helps us to understand the relative number of individuals who are facing ongoing economic impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic, and, oppositely, the relative number of individuals who are regaining employment, as continued claims increase or decrease week by week. Continued unemployment insurance claims (claims filed by people who have already filed an initial claim and who have experienced a week of unemployment, and then have filed a continued claim to claim benefits for that week of unemployment) decreased by 13% from January to February. Monthly claims were roughly 100,000 as 2021 began, and have declined to 33,825 in February. Though this is among the lowest number of claims the region has seen since before the pandemic began in March of 2020, continued claims are still nearly 18% higher. In 2019, monthly claims remained between 13,000 and 29,000 every month of the year. When the pandemic began in spring of 2020, jobless claims were the highest levels on record. In April 2020, the number of monthly continued claims jumped from roughly 34,700 in March to 320,400 in April, and remained above 150,000 each month until September of 2020.
|
POWERED IN
|
 |
 |
This metric tracks the total number of monthly continued unemployment insurance claims filed by residents of the 13-county Minneapolis Saint Paul metro (excludes the two Wisconsin counties that are part of the Minneapolis Saint Paul MSA). Data is provided by the Minnesota Department of Employment and Economic Development (DEED). Unemployment insurance claims for Black, Indigenous, and People of Color (BIPOC) include aggregated claims for these racial/ethnic groups: Black, Asian, Hispanic, More than one race, Native American, Native Hawaiian or Pacific Islander.
WHY THIS MATTERS TO ECONOMIC RECOVERY:
The number of workers applying for ongoing unemployment insurance benefits provides evidence of economic distress, and is an important labor market indicator. Looking at the rate of change over time provides context and insight as to how well the economy is doing relative to previous time periods and can help us understand the pace of economic recovery during and after recession.
RACIAL EQUITY AND INCLUSIVE RECOVERY:
The share of continued claims filed by BIPOC workers in the 7-county MSP metro has remained high throughout the pandemic. Unemployment insurance claims filed by BIPOC workers represented 25-35% of total continuing claims during the pre-pandemic months of 2020 and rose steadily to above 45% by August of 2020. In 2021, the share of unemployment insurance claims filed by BIPOC workers reached a high of 46% in September, but has steadily decreased throughout the Fall and early Winter. In February, the share of claims filed by BIPOC workers was 27.4%, the lowest since May 2020 when the number of claims filed was at its peak. The share though is still higher than the proportion of BIPOC workers in the region (24% in the seven-county region, according to ACS estimates).
Much of this disparity is caused by the fact that BIPOC workers are more heavily concentrated in the industries that were hardest hit by the pandemic, such as retail, hospitality, and food services. We also know that these same industries tend to be heavily reliant on occupations with high-contact intensity and less flexibility to work from home, posing serious health concerns for workers as well as less flexibility to deal with things like childcare closures and distance learning for workers with young children.
There is also concern about rising prevalence of long term unemployed, those workers who are out of work for 27 weeks or longer. Demographics matter when it comes to risk level for long term unemployment. According to an analysis of UI claimant data by Minnesota DEED, Black Minnesotans have experienced the longest average period on unemployment insurance since the start of the pandemic in March of 2020. In addition to Black workers in the state, women, workers 65 and older, workers with a high school diploma or less, and Minnesotans with disabilities are all groups that have experienced longer times than average on unemployment insurance. Research shows that being out of work for a prolonged period is associated with lower well-being among workers, their families, and their communities.
TELLING THE FULL STORY:
It is important to note that data is revised monthly, and does not include some special program recipients such as Pandemic Emergency Unemployment Compensation or extended benefits. Applicants who qualify for regular unemployment insurance benefits must have earned sufficient wage credits, must be unemployed through no fault of their own, must be available to work and actively seeking suitable employment, and can only receive benefits for up to 26 weeks. Not every unemployed worker applies for unemployment insurance benefits, and so this data does not perfectly represent the number or share of workers in the region who have lost their job or are not working. In addition, not every applicant provides details of race/ethnicity, meaning there are many applicants not accounted for in our racial disaggregation analysis.
HOW TO LEARN MORE:
To track unemployment insurance claims, visit Minnesota DEED’s Unemployment Insurance Statistics, which offers in depth data disaggregated by geographic, demographic, and occupational characteristics.
The Census Household Pulse Survey interactive tool shows additional measures of financial distress for the state of Minnesota, including expected loss of income, food scarcity, housing insecurity, likelihood of eviction or foreclosure, and more.
The MSP Regional Indicators Dashboard includes economic indicators tracking employment, as well as racial wage gap and racial employment gap figures for the region.
Want to share insights from the Regional Recovery Hub in your own presentations and materials? Download the Recovery Toolkit.