MSP Regional Recovery Hub Weekly Take
The big thing you should know about economic recovery in the Minneapolis Saint Paul region for the week of January 18th.
This is the Recovery Hub Weekly Take, a new resource giving you the latest insights on regional economic recovery in the Minneapolis Saint Paul region.
This Week’s Big Thing: the MSP region lost over 40,000 jobs in December. December jobs numbers for the region were reported yesterday and we learned that total nonfarm employment had the first substantial month-over-month drop since initial stay at home orders took effect in late March 2020. Employment usually drops from November to December here in the MSP region due to seasonal fluctuations in employment. But this year the December jobs numbers take on a COVID-19 flavor, with losses occurring primarily in the leisure and hospitality sector, which experienced a 21.7% month-over-month decline (about 30,000 jobs lost). December’s losses erase gains made in the MSP region since August and expand the gap with pre-COVID 2019 employment levels one year prior to 7.9%.
There is good news and bad news on the heels of these numbers being reported. The bad news is that initial unemployment insurance claims are still pretty high the first week of January, meaning we could see further decline or stagnation in employment in the January report. Initial UI claims increased 18% from the previous week to 8,437 claims. This is the third consecutive week of rising weekly claims and the 9th consecutive week that weekly claims have remained above 6,000. Occupations that saw an increase in claims were retail sales workers, motor vehicle operators, and other production occupations. The good news is that the state’s loosening of restrictions on restaurants, bars, and entertainment venues took effect on January 6th. Since then restaurants have been allowed to offer in-person dining at 50% capacity and we’re already seeing an improvement through restaurant bookings activity. This should mean that initial UI claims will drop the second week of January and January employment should pick up.
An update from last week’s take when we talked about the hotel occupancy trends tracked on the Recovery Hub. The hotel industry has faced a truly devastating impact through the COVID-19 pandemic. In fact, according to our data partner STR, 2020 was officially the worst year on record for U.S. hotels. (To check out the latest on hotel occupancy trends, visit the Recovery Hub here.) I had the chance last week to join the Visit Saint Paul team for their MyVSP January Member Meeting and was inspired by the optimism and sense of collaboration from members. In spite of an incredibly challenging time for the industry, there was a feeling that by working together we can overcome the tremendous obstacles in front of us. Kudos to you, Saint Paul! I also want to give a shout out to the City of Saint Paul for establishing the Saint Paul Restaurant Resiliency Project in partnership with NCXT. If you are a restaurant owner looking for resources and support through the pandemic please reach out to Jonathan Banks at NCXT by visiting the link here. It’s an awesome, and free, resource to you.
I also mentioned last week a story covered in Food & Wine about hotels that are offering pandemic-friendly private dining, an innovative approach to get folks into hotel rooms. Recovery Hub project partner Meet Minneapolis shared with us that there are two hotels in Minneapolis offering this service, the Hewing Hotel and the Rand Tower Hotel. To learn more, check out the article in Minnesota Monthly. We love to draw attention to innovative approaches around the region to get the MSP economy moving, so please reach out with any tips.
Want to see the latest data and insights on economic recovery in MSP? Check out the MSP Regional Recovery Hub. The Hub is in beta, which means we are actively working to enhance the functionality to make sure it works for you. If you have any questions or feedback on the Recovery Hub, or would like to learn more about getting involved contact Amanda Taylor, Vice President of Research & Intelligence.