The GREATER MSP intel team has been collecting and tracking data for several weeks to see how the regional economy is impacted by COVID-19. We’ve looked at several indicators to get a sense of the depth of the crisis, both as it relates to the health of residents and vulnerability of jobs and industries as so many of our region’s employers have been impacted by the effects of stay at home orders. Everyone to some degree is feeling the impact of this crisis, but what the data is showing us is a disproportionately larger impact on people of color in the Greater MSP region. The challenges faced by people of color include increased health risk and increased economic vulnerabilities, amplifying long-standing structural racial disparities in our region. We’re just beginning to dig into data points that paint this picture. In this post are a few of our observations so far.

Mortality rates for Black residents lower than Whites in Minnesota, but the highest risk neighborhoods in our region’s urban core are communities of color

The American Public Media APM Research Lab has been monitoring death rates across the country and has found that the death toll is disproportionately high for Black Americans, 2.7 times higher than for White Americans. Minnesota is one of only nine states where White residents have disproportionately higher deaths relative to population. White residents are 83% of the state population and account for 93% of deaths. Minnesota is one of seven states where Black residents are dying at rates roughly proportional to population.

While mortality rates remain consistent with population, we are finding that neighborhoods with high concentrations of people of color are at higher risk for contracting COVID-19. Wilder Research mapped neighborhoods in Minneapolis and St. Paul with a potentially higher risk of contracting the virus. Neighborhoods were mapped based on seven different risk factors the CDC says will make COVID-19 more severe: Asthma, COPD, heart disease, stroke, obesity, diabetes and kidney disease. Wilder Research’s mapping found that the highest risk communities in the region’s urban core are also the poorest, and with high concentrations of people of color.

Most vulnerable industries have high concentration of workers of color

At this stage of the COVID-19 crisis, we all recognize that the hardest hit, most vulnerable industries are the ones that have been directly impacted by stay-at-home orders, including restaurants and bars, hotels, and retail shops, for example. The McKinsey Global Institute (MGI) recently reported that 44 million to 57 million jobs are vulnerable to inactivity that could lead to reduced income, furloughs, or layoffs. The three leading vulnerable industries in MGI’s reporting include accommodation & food services, retail trade, and healthcare & social assistance.

The three most vulnerable industries identified by MGI account for over 650,000 jobs, 30% of total employment in the Greater MSP region. This is a significant portion of our regional economy facing job uncertainty. What’s even more striking is that these are three of the most highly concentrated industries employing people of color in our region. In total, nearly 178,000 people of color work these vulnerable industries accounting for 40% of all people of color in the workforce. Stated another way, four in 10 people of color in our regional workforce are facing economic hardship right now, layered on with existing structural barriers to income stability.

There is more data to track

This analysis is just scratching the surface on the challenges that people of color in our region face during this crisis, and through the recovery that will commence. The Brookings Institution has been a leading voice of insight on inclusive recovery insight and intelligence, and recently published a report understanding regional variation in minority business ownership trends in the wake of the Great Recession and through the expansion period that followed. We plan to dive into this research at more depth for the Greater MSP region, in addition to deeper analysis of vulnerable jobs.  This will be important as the region develops recovery strategies that build an economy that works for everyone.